How Claims of Sheikh Hasina’s Return Spread Across Facebook?

Soon after Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh on 5 August 2024, discussions about her return began circulating on Facebook.

Sometimes posts claimed she would return very soon. Sometimes they said she would return by December. At other times, her return was presented as a political demand.

But how did these claims spread on Facebook?

Did a post move from one profile to another? Was a statement published on a Page and then distributed across different groups? Or did the same statement appear on multiple Pages at almost the same time?

It Began in August 2024

To explore the questions, DataXplainer analysed 33,301 Facebook posts published between August 2024 and August 2026. The dataset includes posts from profiles, Pages and groups.

Among the collected posts, the first reference to Sheikh Hasina returning to Bangladesh was found on the night of 5 August 2024. At 11:11 PM, a Page named Nusrat er ranna and blogs posted: “Sheikh Hasina is returning to the country again.”

The following night, 6 August, at 11:54 PM, another Page, বিষন্নসুন্দর-Bishonnohsundor, published a more specific claim: “Sheikh Hasina is returning to the country tomorrow.”

There was no evidence in the dataset that these two statements were widely redistributed at that time through other Pages, profiles or groups.

By 2025 and 2026, however, a different pattern had emerged. Identical text sometimes appeared on several Pages within seconds, sometimes moved from one account into dozens of groups within minutes, and sometimes appeared on additional accounts after first being observed elsewhere.

Pattern 1: Identical Text on Multiple Pages Within Seconds

One of the clearest examples appeared on 13 March 2025. At 11:43 AM, a Page called Dhaka News Online published a post whose central claim was: “Sheikh Hasina will return as prime minister…”

One second later, the same text appeared on News24Dhaka. Two seconds after that, it appeared on Dhaka24Post.

In other words, the same statement appeared on three Pages within only three seconds.

The repetition did not stop there. Within 2 minutes and 55 seconds of the first post, 10 posts containing the same statement appeared across different Pages.

By 19 April 2025, 562 posts containing the same statement had been found across 115 Pages.

Pattern 2: One Account Posting the Same Content to Many Groups Within Minutes

The clearest recurring pattern in the analysis involved a single Page or account posting identical text to multiple Facebook groups over a very short period.

At 2:07 PM on 15 September 2025, a Page called 71 Brigade published a long political statement.

It began: “The economy is destroyed, militancy is rising –  Dr Yunus’s illegal government must resign. No more farcical elections; we want the return of legitimate Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.”

About 3 hours and 29 minutes later, at 5:36 PM, the same text was posted by another Page, Daily Fresh News, to a Facebook group called Political News.

Between 5:36:22 PM and 5:45:09 PM, Daily Fresh News posted the same text to 72 Facebook groups in just 8 minutes and 47 seconds.

From the first group post to the last, the average rate was approximately one group post every seven seconds. 

The fastest period came between 5:41 PM and 5:42 PM. During those two minutes alone, the text was posted to 31 groups.

A similar case appeared on 6 May 2026.

An account named Shivshakti posted identical text successively to Facebook groups. The first group post was recorded at 4:08:25 PM. The last appeared at 4:11:16 PM.

That means the same account posted identical text to 48 different Facebook groups in only 2 minutes and 51 seconds.

The post said: “Modi and Amit Shah’s master stroke. Changes are taking place in Bangladesh’s parliament; Sheikh Hasina is returning to the country.”

At 12:28 AM on 12 May 2026, another statement appeared on a profile named Aj Khan: “Sheikh Hasina is finally returning to the country / after nearly two hours of talks with India…”

The same or similar statement later appeared on other profiles. At 7:14 AM, it was observed on Moksadul Islam. At 1:44 PM, it appeared on S M Mahir.

At 5:59:58 PM, the same statement was posted from a Page called The Jerin Collection to a group named Dr. Zakir Naik Official ✅. Rapid direct group-posting followed.

Between 5:59:58 PM and 6:01:26 PM – only 1 minute and 28 seconds – 34 group posts were made from The Jerin Collection, reaching 33 different Facebook groups.

These three cases involved different statements and different accounts. But the distribution pattern was similar: a single account directly posted identical text to many groups within a few minutes.

Pattern 3: Posting on a Page, Then Distributing to Groups Within Seconds

Another observed mechanism involved an account first posting content on its own Page and then distributing the same text from that account into various groups within seconds.

At 8:54:45 AM on 15 November 2025, a Page named A K M Shameem Osman published a statement. Only nine seconds later, the same account posted the text to a Facebook group named Sheikh Hasina.

Within less than one minute, the account had posted the same text to eight groups in total, including Bangladesh Awmai League, Stateswoman Sheikh Hasina, Joy Bangla, Saima Wazed Putul, Pollitics Express and Sheikh Rehana.

About three and a half hours later on the same day, another Page, MD arshad Ali, displayed similar behaviour.

At 12:24:33 PM, the account posted the text on its own Page. Eight seconds later, it began posting the same content to groups. During the next 45 seconds, identical text was posted to nine Facebook groups.

At 2:56:31 AM on 15 May 2026, a Page named Bangladesh Awami League published: “To save the country, Sheikh Hasina’s return is necessary.”

The post also called for the successful observance of Sheikh Hasina’s homecoming day on 17 May.

Only one second later, at 2:56:32 AM, the same Bangladesh Awami League account posted the same text to a Facebook group named Supporters of Bangladesh Awami League. The same text then began appearing on other Pages, profiles and groups.

Altogether, 169 posts containing the same text were identified: 52 profile posts, 54 Page posts and 63 group posts

They were posted by 103 different Facebook accounts.

Pattern 4: A Statement Seen on One Account Later Appears on Other Profiles and Pages

In some cases, a statement was first observed on one profile or Page and later appeared in identical or almost identical form on other accounts.

At 10:25:44 PM on 19 May 2025, a profile named Nilima Nila posted: “Breaking news: Sheikh Hasina will soon return to the army camp with recognition as prime minister.”

Eleven minutes and 47 seconds later, identical text appeared on another profile called Md. Masud follower of Bangabandhu’s ideals. One minute and 17 seconds after that, the same post appeared on a profile named Will return again like a hero.

Later, the same or nearly identical statement appeared on profiles named Shipon Islam at 10:41 PM and Light in Drak at 10:57 PM.

About 39 minutes after the first observed post, at 11:04 PM, the statement appeared on a Page called Bangladesh Awami League. Two posts containing the same statement appeared on that Page, separated by 49 seconds. A few minutes later, the same text appeared on the profile Beloved organization, Bangladesh Awami League.

After midnight, on 20 May, the statement appeared on a Page named Amran Miya and on profiles including Swadhin Bangla Betar Kendra, Bangabandhu Cyber Force, and later Mehebubur Rahman Chowdhury.

Across 19 and 20 May, 12 posts containing the same statement were identified: 9 profile posts and 3 Page posts.

At 1:32:10 AM on 6 April 2026, a Page named Dr. Selina Hayat Ivy published: “Leader Sheikh Hasina will return by December; leaders and activists have been instructed to remain prepared.”

Three minutes and 22 seconds later, at 1:35:32 AM, the same statement appeared on a profile named Sabbir Bsl Awami League.

Another 7 minutes and 8 seconds later, at 1:42:40 AM, it appeared on a Page named Touhid Islam Hridoy.

The same text was subsequently posted to various groups from a Touhid Islam Hridoy profile.

A Page with the same name also began posting the statement to different groups a few minutes later.

 A statement did not necessarily disappear after spreading once. In some cases, identical claims resurfaced months later.

The statement found on multiple profiles and Pages, including Nilima Nila, in May 2025 reappeared in November. It appeared on a Page named Selina Hayat Ivy on 14 November.

The same Page posted the text again. The following day, identical or similar versions appeared on other Pages and profiles.

So How Did Claims About Sheikh Hasina’s Return Spread on Facebook?

The analysis of 33,301 posts did not identify a single mechanism through which the claims spread. Instead, at least four patterns were observed.

First, identical or nearly identical text sometimes appeared on several Pages within seconds. Second, some accounts directly posted the same text into dozens of Facebook groups within a few minutes.

Third, some accounts posted content on their own timelines and then distributed the same text to various groups within seconds.

Fourth, statements first observed on one profile or Page later appeared on other accounts – sometimes within minutes and sometimes several hours later.

[Bangla profile, page and group names have been translated into English]